威斯康星州先期投票与邮寄选票总结：共和党占优

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https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/wisconsin-early-ballot-returns-show-recent-polls-are-wrong-as-republicans-storm-the-polls-now-ahead-in-wi/?amp=1

威斯康星州 传统意义的蓝州 上次川普翻红的州之一

已经有46%的威斯康星州预估选票了 比任何一个poll都有说服力： 42%共和党 36%民主党
https://i2.wp.com/www.toptradeguru.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Wisconsin-1-e1603718926443.png?resize=580,171&ssl=1Source: NBC 

With 1,294,660 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 42% GOP to 36% DEM. About 46% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. Over the past few days, Republicans have stormed the polls and are beginning to take the lead in early voting in several sates. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.

The sample size is larger than any poll, and makes this a more accurate indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of the electorate that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more weary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.

目前各大民调拜登在威斯康星州领先至少5%
Republicans are expected to have a swell of voters cast ballots, as we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Wisconsin, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Wisconsin remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.

These early ballot numbers are unexpected because the current aggregate of polls show Biden up 5+ points and the Democrats were suppose to have the clear advantage in early voting.

However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.

While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Wisconsin, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Wisconsin–about 90%–if Republicans do not get complacent.

18-29岁选民投票率不高 仅占总投票人数5% 2016年为17% 民主党如果要取胜 势必要去催年轻选票 
但是现在大学都不是正常运作的 很多大学生没在学校 （thanks to 民主党的lock everything down政策） 所以还是有难度的 当然 年轻的民主党选民看见这个结果主动跑出去投票也很可能
Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters (18-29) as a percentage. Because voting is up 309% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year olds cast only 5% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 17% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate.

https://i2.wp.com/www.toptradeguru.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Wisconsin-Youth.png?resize=580,160&ssl=1Source: NBC News.

As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs are suppressing the college vote. Many college social events are tied to campaign events for Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.

Also, a general complacency within college-age Democrats of an inevitable Biden win has gripped campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled. Some of these events include virtual rallies, voting caravans and door-to-door canvassing. From our interview with a few organizers in the upper-Midwest, these cancellations are due to Biden’s ‘huge lead’ and concerns over social distancing. The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet. It’s not clear if they will turn out.

品葱用户 华国锋 评论于 2020-10-26

希望川普保住康州！

品葱用户 **TTTTTshen

华国锋** 评论于 2020-10-27

>>希望川普保住康州！

康州一般是说Connecticut吧好像..?

品葱用户 wwwtttlll 评论于 2020-10-26

民主党州关闭大学，这样大学生都在家里，今年校园基本没有政治集会，这样大学生投票人数会急剧下降，而大学生是左派的票仓，80%会投民主党。本来民主党想通过lockdown搞坏经济让川普败选，左派总是搬石头砸自己脚

品葱用户 **华国锋

TTTTTshen** 评论于 2020-10-27

>>康州一般是说Connecticut吧好像..?

是的，我傻逼了

品葱用户 ZetaFC 评论于 2020-10-27

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
你们也可以看看这个。

品葱用户 bmw31315 评论于 2020-10-27

有大佬汇总一下各州的数据嘛，看看假民调到底错成什么样

品葱用户 谢玉阳 评论于 2020-10-26

民调要是靠的住，现在我们在庆祝美国第一任女总统连任。不是在看川普对拜登

品葱用户 davezee 评论于 2020-10-26

如果你点进去NBC的source看其他州的话，2016年trump大胜的佛罗里达、宾夕法尼亚、佐治亚等等更重要的州明显都是biden的先期投票结果大幅领先，专门挑一个总票数更少的威斯康辛说trump领先岂不是管窥蠡测？

品葱用户 **pcfun

davezee** 评论于 2020-10-26

>>如果你点进去NBC的source看其他州的话，2016年trump大胜的佛罗里达、宾夕法尼亚、佐治亚…

你说的是这个吗？https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results?icid=election_nav
这还是poll

品葱用户 **davezee

pcfun** 评论于 2020-10-26

>>你说的是这个吗？https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elec…

对，楼主给的威斯康辛42%共和党 36%民主党也是来自NBC这个网站by state的early voting modeling results。

品葱用户 **bmw31315

davezee** 评论于 2020-10-26

>>如果你点进去NBC的source看其他州的话，2016年trump大胜的佛罗里达、宾夕法尼亚、佐治亚…

NBC这样的左媒能看？

品葱用户 **北美carl

davezee** 评论于 2020-10-27

>>如果你点进去NBC的source看其他州的话，2016年trump大胜的佛罗里达、宾夕法尼亚、佐治亚…

只是威斯康星共和党占优 不代表川普有优势

品葱用户 **十六号码头

davezee** 评论于 2020-10-26

>>如果你点进去NBC的source看其他州的话，2016年trump大胜的佛罗里达、宾夕法尼亚、佐治亚…

不要误导。民主党如果要胜选，本来就需要在提前投票阶段大幅度领先。佛州虽然民主党还暂时领先，但领先幅度大大不如预期。宾州的民主党注册选民可能有相当一部分投川普票，所以宾州的提前投票党籍划分能提供的有效信息量更少。虽然威州只是一个州，照现在形势，川普只要拿下铁锈带四州中任何一个，就可以胜选。

品葱用户 **董堂主

十六号码头** 评论于 2020-10-26

>>不要误导。民主党如果要胜选，本来就需要在提前投票阶段大幅度领先。佛州虽然民主党还暂时领先，但领先幅度…

按目前投票返回的结果看，虽然民主党暂时领先，但是，根据出票的情况分布（邮寄投票和现场投票选民情况等）及以往经验看，以及今年疫情特殊情况，这种领先幅度其实没有任何优势。

现在我可以更加肯定之前的推测，川普连任几乎没有悬念。
但是，支持川普的 还是要积极出来投票，不要被目前这种个别新闻公布的结果迷糊了头脑。

品葱用户 **HatredKiller

wwwtttlll** 评论于 2020-10-26

>>民主党州关闭大学，这样大学生都在家里，今年校园基本没有政治集会，这样大学生投票人数会急剧下降，而大学…

而且摇摆洲选民倒向共和党本身也很民主党搞的这些幺蛾子有直接关系。。。真的是搬石头砸自己，跟吸进瓶一个德行

品葱用户 hells 评论于 2020-10-26

这个是某个model估计的结果，不准确

Wisconsin本身不公布这个数据 https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics
“Pre-election statistics for absentee ballots issued and returned. Wisconsin does not register voters by party preference or affiliation, and has no such information about voters who request absentee ballots.”

品葱用户 **Newer

十六号码头** 评论于 2020-10-28

>>不要误导。民主党如果要胜选，本来就需要在提前投票阶段大幅度领先。佛州虽然民主党还暂时领先，但领先幅度…

不对啊，历年来邮寄选票一直是共和党领先，今年如何就不知道了，因为邮寄人数太多。

品葱用户 **十六号码头

Newer** 评论于 2020-10-27

>>不对啊，历年来邮寄选票一直是共和党领先，今年如何就不知道了，因为邮寄人数太多。

你的记忆不准确
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/11/florida-democrats-hold-90-000-early-vote-lead-will-it-carry-clinton-to-the-white-house-107192

况且今年民主党特别强调邮寄选票，原来估计一半以上的民主党选民会选择邮寄投票。

品葱用户 byteinsight 评论于 2020-10-27

预估选票怎么搞的，提前开票吗？
好像必须选举结束后才能开票吧？如果仅仅是民调，先hold住看看。

品葱用户 **十六号码头

byteinsight** 评论于 2020-10-27

>>预估选票怎么搞的，提前开票吗？好像必须选举结束后才能开票吧？如果仅仅是民调，先hold住看看。

不是。不可以提前开票。现在已知的是投票人的党籍，还不知道他们到底投给谁

品葱用户 **byteinsight

十六号码头** 评论于 2020-10-27

>>不是。不可以提前开票。现在已知的是投票人的党籍，还不知道他们到底投给谁

那应该实际情况更乐观，因为据统计今年川普支持者里面有20%是民主党叛变过来的。

品葱用户 董堂主 评论于 2020-10-27

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