关于大选邮寄选票，感觉民主党可能搬起石头砸自己的脚了?

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今天有一篇华尔街日报文章提到了许多关键州的邮寄选票至今没有收到，并可能大幅延迟的问题，全文我粘贴在底下了。

众所周知，川普一直是反对邮寄选票的，民主党一直是支持邮寄选票的。现在情况搞笑了，美国的邮政系统处理不了这么多票(确实很夸张，全国3亿人，比如说一半选民邮寄，那就是数千万封信，估计超出邮政系统平时承载量好几倍了)，搞到大选当天甚至当周一大堆票回不来。而且邮寄票的肯定是投拜登的多，这样咋整？

按照人之常情，如果你要取一个贵重物品，比如买个钻戒或者取护照，然后你自己放心不下怕邮局寄丢的话，那去现场取一趟肯定是最保险的，说白了能有多不安全，戴个口罩排会队就投了，不会比中午去麦当劳Drive through麻烦太多。如果今年的大选如此重要，一定要击败川普，难道不是应该鼓励大家都去现场投票，确保投票顺利别出问题吗? 我其实不太懂民主党为什么没有想都没想美国邮政系统的承受能力，就在这么重要的事情上胡乱押宝，真的只是政治正确为了唱对台戏？还是觉得自己要输所以早就想好了要耍流氓？但是民调不是领先这么多么，难道他们自己也不信民调？我估计现在DNC的人看见现在这个选票delay的情况估计是觉得oh shit，之前没想到会出现这个情况。

文章也说了，这事儿拖得越久越容易引起官司。特别是，如果你本来说了11月1号寄到，然后到点发现一堆信没回来再延迟，连续搞几次这个事儿就很扯淡了。你可以宣布延迟投票川普能不能宣布延迟换届呢？有点像是2013年金球奖，布拉特为了让C罗得奖强行宣布投票时间推后一周，会不会出现这种事情？

Millions of Mail-in Ballots at Risk in Battleground States With Looming Deadlines

Millions of mail-in ballots haven’t been received by election offices in critical battleground states, where recent slowdowns in mail deliveries risk some votes not arriving in time to count for the presidential election.

As of Oct. 30, more than seven million mailed ballots had not been returned in the 13 most competitive states that require ballots to arrive on or before Election Day, a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project found. That’s about 28% of the more than 24 million ballots that had been tallied in those states, the Elections Project data show.

Many of the states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida, were narrowly won in the 2016 presidential election, in some cases by only a few thousand votes, making the outstanding ballots potentially critical to figuring a winner this time around.

Mail delays won’t help the situation: So far this week, first-class mail times have slowed from the week before in 12 of the 13 competitive states with tight deadlines, according to data from mail-tracking firm GrayHair Software.

In a statement, the Postal Service said it had seen an exceedingly high volume of mail moving through the system this week, and was continuing to “implement extraordinary measures to advance and expedite the delivery of the nation’s ballots,” including extra trips, extended overtime shifts for workers and mail collection on Sunday.

The total number of outstanding votes is difficult to know with precision. Some voters who requested mail-in ballots may wind up voting in person or not at all. Some states, such as Colorado, automatically mail ballots to every eligible voter, leading to potential overestimates in the number of outstanding ballots. Many states, including Florida and Arizona, also offer ballot drop boxes, which don’t use the Postal Service.

Thus far, the Postal Service said it has processed more than 4.5 billion pieces of political and election mail, more than double the 2016 election cycle, including 122 million ballots. A spokesman said the Postal Service didn’t comment on third-party data.

Documents filed Oct. 30 by the Postal Service in federal court in the District of Columbia show the service has struggled in recent weeks to hit its own on-time targets, which typically range between two and five business days for first-class mail.

Nationwide, the Postal Service said just 62% of first-class mail was delivered on time on Tuesday, with Philadelphia and Detroit both seeing on-time delivery rates below 50% that day. Performance ticked up in those cities on Wednesday, with the national on-time delivery average currently hovering at 89%.

In the court filings, the Postal Service also gave a snapshot of mail-in ballot performance. Ballots arrived on time more often than regular first-class mail, though in some areas, a substantial number were late. On Thursday, 9% of returned mail-in ballots were late in Philadelphia and 20% were delivered late in Detroit. Overall, the Postal Service delivered 94% of returned ballots on time on Thursday, it said.

David Partenheimer, the Postal Service spokesman, said the daily data produced in court was unreliable. “The processing data included are daily scores, as ordered by the court, but they are not comparable to our normal reporting,” Mr. Partenheimer said.

In the week ending Oct. 23, 80.85% of first-class mail was delivered on time, down from about 85% earlier in the month, Postal Service data show. The Postal Service said the slowdown was due in part to impacts from the coronavirus, increased mail volume and efforts to prioritize ballots.

In Michigan, where Donald Trump eked out a victory with just 10,704 more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016, more than 700,000 requested ballots had not been received by election officials as of Oct. 29, Elections Project data show. Delivery times averaged more than six days this week, the GrayHair data show, raising questions about how many of those ballots could arrive late and then go uncounted. Michigan’s deadline for ballots to be counted is Election Day.

At the USPS Pontiac Metroplex distribution center in Michigan, where as many as five million mail pieces are processed a day, the scene was chaotic in the final days of the election: First-class mail piled up on the floors, some of the nonelection mail delayed there already for nine days, even as extra workers cycled through 12-hour, seven-day shifts, according to an employee there.

A dedicated team of four spent mornings sifting through the piles of mail in search of ballots for expedited handling, the employee said.

“We are closely monitoring the flow of mail in this facility and facilities across the country. Members of our Election Mail Task Force, along with the Postal Inspection Service, are in the plant every day and are aggressively addressing issues,” Mr. Partenheimer said.

Legal experts say mail delays in states with rigid ballot deadlines could lead to challenges that delay the election results.

“It increases the chance of litigation,” Akhil Reed Amar, a Yale University professor of constitutional law and political science said.

At the same time, record early-voting numbers could limit the impact of the national slowdowns in mail delivery—more than 80 million ballots had already been cast by Thursday, according to the Associated Press. “Half the people who are going to vote have voted, and their mail has already been delivered,” Mr. Amar said.

In Arizona, where Mr. Trump won by 91,234 votes, 1,225,387 ballots had not been returned as of Tuesday, the Elections Project data show. This comes as the state saw the slowest mail delivery in the U.S. this week, according to the GrayHair data, with first-class letter delivery times exceeding an average of 7.3 days.

Similar slowdowns were occurring in Georgia, where 624,842 requested ballots had not been returned as of Oct. 29, the Elections Project data show. In 2016, Mr. Trump won the state by 211,141 votes.

To be counted, ballots must be returned by Election Day in both states.

The Journal’s analysis excluded some states, such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Kansas, where mail-in ballots must be postmarked on Election Day but can be received later. The deadlines in several states have been the subjects of recent litigation.

The delays at the Postal Service have been exacerbated by the pandemic, staff shortages and controversial cost-cutting measures ordered by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy this summer.

In an effort to conduct an informal test of the postal system, the Journal over the past two months circulated a set of more than two dozen GPS trackers on 78 routes into and around some of the tightest battleground states, including Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona.

As of Oct. 29, 56 of those trips had been completed: at least 20 of the trips, or about 36%, took more than three days; nine, or about 16%, took more than five days; and five, or 9%, took more than seven days. The remaining 21 trips were still under way on Thursday (one recipient filed a change of address form and was excluded from the Journal’s analysis).

In its test, the Journal used several different first-class class mail methods, including both parcel service and letters.

Parcel delivery times were more consistent than letters, which ranged from two days (California to Wisconsin) to 15 (California to Michigan). None of the mail sent by the Journal was eligible for expedited handling as election mail.

Another letter, sent on Oct. 17 from California to a recipient in North Carolina, had yet to arrive as of Oct. 29.

品葱用户 what7isay 评论于 2020-10-31

Trump:i told you

品葱用户 天狼星 评论于 2020-10-31

民主党呼吁邮寄选票的理由根本就不充分。邮寄选票不安全，容易产生舞弊。至于疫情纯粹是借口，BLM的时候不怕疫情，投票反倒担心起来了？

宾州共和党选区选票被丢的事已经被抓包了，这事没完，开完票再说。

品葱用户 Attackontitan 评论于 2020-10-31

可能民主党想通过邮寄作弊，只是没想到提前爆出来，或者说必然爆出来，毕竟超过邮政系统承载能力没有精密的提前部署和大量投入人力物力是肯定会出问题的，但如果提前部署又会露出马脚

品葱用户 **frankw

Attackontitan** 评论于 2020-10-31

>>可能民主党想通过邮寄作弊，只是没想到提前爆出来，或者说必然爆出来，毕竟超过邮政系统承载能力没有精密的…

如果真是那样的话，还真说明民主党有我党的心，可惜没有我党的执行力，哈哈哈，要换成我党肯定能高效完成任务

品葱用户 阿尔戈洛 评论于 2020-10-31

There’s no doubt the election results won’t be decided on Nov. 3, but there’s still the specter of Donald Trump  preliminarily declaring a victory for himself – and with a Supreme Court, now heavily conservative with the recent addition of Amy Coney-Barrett more than likely to rule in his favor.

品葱用户 若名用户 评论于 2020-11-01

现在高兴还太早了。有一个爆出来作弊的，代表水面下还有十个甚至一百个。
搬石砸脚，那是习近平这种小学生干的事，美国人干的，怕是没那么简单。
只能说看戏吧，现在只能说，一场好戏必定上演。

品葱用户 **荣耀归于上帝

frankw** 评论于 2020-11-01

>>如果真是那样的话，还真说明民主党有我党的心，可惜没有我党的执行力，哈哈哈，要换成我党肯定能高效完成任…

民主党毕竟不像共产党控制了一个国家的资源分配的权力，没有军警作为武力威吓，没有完全控制媒体。

品葱用户 **frankw

若名用户** 评论于 2020-10-31

>>现在高兴还太早了。有一个爆出来作弊的，代表水面下还有十个甚至一百个。搬石砸脚，那是习近平这种小学生干…

我的意思是，邮寄的是投拜登的多，所以就算作弊也是把其中比较少的一部分投川普的票改了

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