为什么很少看到民主党支持者对于特朗普获胜的反思呢？

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知乎用户 肖大锤 发表于 11/12/2016

看到一个1400赞的答案，转过来。随便机翻一下，比较简单。

How did Donald Trump win the 2016 US Presidential Election?

If you don’t understand how Trump could win before Nov. 8th, I totally understand you.

If you still don’t understand how Trump won now, you have a serious arrogance and ignorance problem.

如果在11月8日之前你不明白特朗普怎么能赢的话，我完全理解你。如果你现在还不明白特朗普是怎么赢的，你有严重的傲慢和无知。

I would assume you, the reader to this answer, live in a urban area in either Northeast or the West Coast, college educated, a typical left-wing supporter and advocator for your entire life.

That’s nice. You work in the office with HVAC on 24/7/365. You go to gym after work, watching news from CNN or NBC on the treadmill. Then you eat your dinner out somewhere with a friend, probably not cooking at home. Sometimes you fly between NYC/Boston and LA/SFO for business. When you look down from the plane window and see those endless farmlands and mountains in the midwest, you are thinking “I can’t imagine living a life down there.”

我假设这个答案的读者生活在东海岸或西海岸的市区里，是受过大学教育的人，并且是整个人生都在倡导和支持左翼，很好。你1年365天都在有冷暖空调的办公室里。你下班后到健身房去，在跑步机上或美国有线电视新闻网NBC新闻。然后你和一个朋友在一个地方吃晚饭，可能不在家做饭。有时你会因为工作往返飞纽约/波士顿和洛杉矶/ 旧金山之间。当你从飞机的窗口和中西部地区看到那些无尽的农田和山，你在想“我不能想象那里的生活。”

When you saw Trump won, you were shocked. Holy shit! There’s not a single person around me who supports Trump, how could he win?

当你看到特朗普赢了，你很震惊。擦了！在我身边没有一个人支持特朗普，他怎么赢的？

That’s where the problem is. You are living in a completely different world than those Trump supporters.

这是问题的所在。你跟那些特朗普的支持者生活在一个完全不同的世界。

When you refuel your car, have you ever wondered where the gas comes from, if not imported? Who drilled the oil for you?

当你给车加油时，你有没有想过如果不进口的话，天然气从哪来？谁为你钻油？

When you charge your phone, have you ever wondered where the electricity comes from? Who dig the coal to power the plant?

当你为你的手机充电时，你有没有想过电的来源？谁挖煤来发电？

When you shop in the supermarket, have you ever wondered where the fresh vegetables and fruits come from? Who drove the truck all the way from California to New York to deliver those goods?

当你在超市购物，你有没有想过新鲜的蔬菜和水果从哪里来？谁驾驶卡车从加利福尼亚到纽约交付这些货物？

Those are the people who support Donald Trump. Have you ever talked to anyone of them?

Without you, they can still feed themselves, but without them, you will be starved to death.

So now how could you despise them as “uneducated redneck racists”?

那些是支持唐纳德·特朗普的人。你有没有和他们中的任何人谈过？ 没有你，他们仍然可以养活自己，但没有他们，你会饿死。 所以现在你怎么可以鄙视他们为“未受教育的红脖种族主义者”？

When they watch the news, even when watching Fox News, the camera is always on the big cities far away from them. They are ignored, as if they don’t exist in this country. No one pays attention to them, and no one speaks for them, until Donald Trump.

当他们看新闻，即使在看福克斯新闻时，镜头总是在远离他们的大城市。他们被忽视了，就好像他们不存在于这个国家。没有人关注他们，没有人会为他们说话，直到唐纳德·特朗普。

They could drive a truck for $8k a month 20 years ago working 60 hours a week, but now the illegal immigrants are willing to do it at $3k. They lost their jobs.

20年前他们可以为了每个月8K美元开卡车，每周工作60小时，但现在非法移民愿意以3千美元这样做。他们失去了工作。

They could work in a factory for $4k a month 20 years ago, but now the job goes to China and Mexico. They lost their jobs.

20年前，他们可以当工人每月4千美元，但现在工厂搬到了到中国和墨西哥，他们失去了工作。

You can’t urge a 40-year-old man having a family to raise to go to college again and learn programming. They can’t and they can’t afford.

你不能催促一个有家庭的40岁男人为了提高自己再次上大学和学习编程。他们不能，他们学不起。

You also can’t say in 10 years robots are doing the job for them and they should just vanish because they can’t follow the era.

你也不能说在10年里机器人做他们做的工作，他们应该消失，因为他们不能跟随时代。

They are human beings. They are lovely nice people. They don’t hate you. They work hard so you can live a comfortable life. Why do you hate them? Why do you label them as racists, xenophobia, bigots without even knowing how hard their lives are?

他们是人类。他们是可爱的好人。他们不恨你。他们努力工作，所以你可以过一个舒适的生活。你为什么讨厌他们？为什么你把他们标记为种族主义者，仇外心理，甚至不知道他们的生活有多难？

When they are losing jobs and falling into poverty, they stay at home and turn on the TV, see Obama and Hillary speaking on ABC News: “The biggest problem we are now facing is climate change.”

当他们失去工作和陷入贫困时，他们待在家里打开电视，看到奥巴马和希拉里在ABC新闻上说：“我们现在面临的最大的问题是气候变化。

And they sigh, they switch to Fox News and see Donald Trump speaking on his rally in Detroit MI: “We need to rebuild our inner cities, we need to bring jobs back.”

他们叹了口气，转向福克斯新闻，看到唐纳德·特朗普在底特律米尔顿的集会上说：“我们需要重建我们的城市，我们需要把工作带回来。

When they saw Obama visiting NYC after hurricane Sandy in 2012, but was playing golf when the devastating flood in Louisiana destroyed thousands of homes this summer, they knew they were forgotten.

2012年桑迪飓风来的时候，他们看到奥巴马到访了纽约。但是在今年夏天，洪水摧毁了路易斯安那州成千上万房子的时候，奥巴马却在打高尔夫球。他们知道他们被遗忘了。

When they saw Trump visiting Louisiana after the flood, a state that he didn’t need to campaign at all, they knew someone actually cared for them.

当他们看到特朗普在洪水后访问路易斯安那州，一个他根本不需要活动的地方，他们知道有人真正关心他们。

If you are them, who will you vote for?

如果你是他们，你投票给谁？

They are the silent majorities. They live in your flyover states. They don’t care about LGBT or BLM. They are not racists or homophobia. They just want jobs to feed their families.

他们是沉默的多数。他们住在你从不会去的地方。他们不关心LGBT或BLM。他们不是种族主义者或同性恋恐惧症。他们只是想找工作养家糊口。

Please throw away your arrogance and start to care about those people. They are Americans too. They are more American than you are, since some of your clients and costumers are foreign.

请丢弃你的傲慢，开始关心那些人。他们也是美国人。他们比你更美国，因为你的一些客户和客户是外国的。

They have no methods to let you hear them. They only have their ballots. They vote to knock you out of your utopia. That’s the power of democracy. That’s why democracy is great. It never ignores anyone.

他们没有办法让你听到他们。他们只有他们的选票。他们投票把你从你的乌托邦叫醒。这就是民主的力量。这就是为什么民主是伟大的。它永远不会忽视任何人。

If you believe your value is progressive and right, you need to help them getting out of their trouble first. You can’t blame and mock them. It will only push them away from you even more.

Trump has been a democrat longer than republican in his life, but he could still defeat 16 republican candidates and won more votes in the primaries than anyone else in the history. This has already proven that the silent majorities are much more tolerant now on social issues. They just want someone to fix the economy for them.

如果你相信你的价值是进步的和正确的，你需要先帮助他们摆脱困境。你不能责怪他们，嘲笑他们，那只会将他们推的更远。特朗普一生里身为民主党的时间比共和党要长，但他仍能击败16名共和党候选人，在初选中赢得的选票比历史上任何人都多。这已经证明，沉默的大多数对社会问题现在是宽容多了的，他们只是希望有人来为他们解决经济。

Now it’s your chance to work with them, help them under the 4 years of Trump’s presidency. Stop protesting and introspect yourself. Isn’t your arrogance and ignorance that brought Trump to the White House?

现在是你的机会，与他们合作，在特朗普总统的4年帮助他们。停止抗议和内省自己，难道不是你的傲慢和无知把特朗普带到白宫吗？

-——————

不过我看了一些对这个答主的回复，普遍的态度都是，你说的有对的地方，但是blablabla…….

知乎用户 Remn 发表于 11/11/2016

我从quora上找到一篇文章，目前获赞2000+。在白左的大本营，他们也开始反思了。

可以直接登录Quora阅读，不需要翻墙。翻译持续放出ing
How did Donald Trump win the 2016 US Presidential Election?

(已获原作者授权)

正文:

Trump won thanks to the Democrats. So if that was your party, you have them to blame.
特朗普大获全胜，得多亏民主党的助攻。
如果你是民主党人，这锅得你们的党背。

As a preface, I am writing this from a neutral, objective standpoint.
开头申明，我的这篇文字立场相当理客中的。
(感谢李云卿 - 知乎同志的提醒，译者特此申明: 我的译文是相对不理客中的，如果有意见………………………………………….自己憋着，就酱紫，哈哈)

Let’s start with the key factor here. It’s summed up in one slogan:
先提一个关键点。

下面这张图，一图可以蔽之

“The silent majority stands with Trump.”

“支持特朗普的是沉默多数”

Remember this quote on those signs being held by his supporters? It served as both a slogan, and, as we have found out…
特朗普支持者手举的这张牌子上，引用了一句话，还记得吗？
这既是一句口号，也是这个问题的答案。

It was a warning.
它是一声警钟

A warning that went completely unheeded by every major news outlet. They laughed it off.
可在主流媒体上，这句警告却全无踪影，对这些(底层呼声)，他们只会放声嘲笑。

“That’s great kids, but Clinton has the vocal majority, good game.”
”不错哟。可是克林顿掌握了能发出声音的大多数，躺赢!”

(因为有评论在批评“good game"的翻译，这里解释下。“GOOD GAME"有形势一片大好，比赛局面优势明显的意思。套用一下网络流行语，就是“躺赢”啦)

And yet the election results prove that the slogan was indeed true. A huge silent majority overwhelmed the predicted polling outcome.
选举结果却确凿地证明，那句标语所反映的情况，其实是无可辩驳的事实。沉默的大多数，最终用选票压倒了先前一个个民意调查。

Why was this the key factor?
And why were the polls so radically off?
原来这才是本次选举的关键因素?
原来这些民意调查其实已偏离事实，错得如此离谱?
**为什么?
**
For starters, the Democrats made a terrible assumption, one that hadn’t caused them any trouble up until now:
首先，民主党人先入为主，预设了立场。
这个假设立场变成了隐形地雷，一直拖到现在，终于爆发了

They assumed that states that historically voted blue would continue to do so.
他们自以为是，觉得只要是传统意义上的蓝州，就会一如既往地把票投给民主党。

And this is where it all goes down. Every polling prediction used this assumption as a starting point, taking them for granted. They focused heavily on battleground states, ignoring the possibility that their home base was susceptible to attack. They ignored the warning of a silent majority.
而这一点，成了他们栽倒的主要原因。所有的民意调查，都把这个预设立场当成理所当然。民主党人也因此将注意力集中在摇摆州上。他们压根没有意识到，在共和党的攻势下，自己的大本营最后都会不堪一击。“沉默大多数” 先前发出的警告，被他们直接无视了。

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have been blue 3for the past two decades. This election, each one flipped red, undermining the core of pundit predictions. It was precisely when this flip happened that everyone started panicking and Clinton’s odds of winning plummeted. The silent majority struck, and it struck hard.
过去二十年里，威斯康辛州、宾尼法尼亚州和密西根州(三个蓝州)一直把票投给民主党，但本次选举，他们却打破了先前各种权威预测，全部反水，转成一片通红。正是从这三个州的跳反开始，所有人都跌破了眼镜，克林顿的胜算也随之渺茫。沉默的大多数完成了他们的反击，一个耳光打得民主党人金星乱闪。

But why were they silent up until now?
可是，那些人为什么(不得不)沉默到此刻才爆发出来呢?

The Clinton campaign made it acceptable, trendy, and cool to hate Trump supporters
克林顿的竞选宣传，让许多人以为，对特朗普支持者抱恶感，是一件炫酷、时髦、可以接受的事情。

The Clinton campaign colluded with major media news outlets (as evidenced from Wikileaks) and constantly pumped out negative videos of Trump while largely ignoring the constant scandals Hillary found herself in.
克林顿的竞选团队跟主流媒体串通在一起，源源不断地翻出黑特朗普的各种视频，而克林顿各种麻烦缠身的丑闻，很大程度上却被忽视了。

In his speeches, Trump often made remarks of certain minority groups. These remarks usually included praise along side criticism, and he usually made sure to add that he didn’t mean to say that a minority group as a whole was to blame.
特朗普在他的演讲中，经常对少数族裔评头论足，有夸赞，也不乏批评。可是，他并非一概而论，每次讲话提到这个话题时，他总要加上不偏不颇的几句话，避免留下以偏概全、打倒一片的印象。

The news outlets pounced on this. It wasn’t hard, they just had to edit out or not show the parts where Trump explained himself. As a result, the people who actually attended his rallies saw perfectly reasonable statements, and those who didn’t only saw edited footage that showed him making racist and outlandish remarks with no clarification. On top of that, the edited footage was often spliced with cheering from his audience. Any reasonable person seeing a clip like that, without knowing it was edited, would rightly be horrified by both Trump and his supporters.
但媒体却一股脑儿扑上去，对着特朗普大肆鞭挞。他们的手法其实也没多复杂，只需将特朗普自我辩解的部分剪去，或者干脆不放出来。结果，参加特朗普集会的群众，听到的是理性的政治主张，而另些人只看过经过删减的视频片段，他们就会觉得特朗普思维紊乱、出言不逊、种族歧视。剪辑者甚至添火加油地在视频里加上了集会群众的喝彩声，一个人但凡有些理性，接触了这种视频，自然而然会被特朗普和他的支持者骇破胆子。

And so a divide was created.
几次三番，几次三番，社会裂痕便被撕开了。

“Trump is racist and his supporters are racist” became the justification for hating Trump supporters. From that point on, any person who outed themselves as a Trump supporter while in a liberal circle could expect to get shamed. The better option was to stay silent.
“特朗普这个种族主义者，他的支持者也都是一丘之貉” ，痛恨特朗普支持者，于是便有了正当理由。从此以后，自由派圈子里胆敢发声支持特朗普的人，都会被羞辱一番。稍识时务的，唯有保持沉默。

The Clinton campaign didn’t stop there. They paid celebrities large sums of money to endorse Hillary, in an effort to reach a millennial base. They even paid many prominent YouTubers to endorse her, videos of which can be found right now (along with videos by YouTubers who called out that kind of play and refused).
克林顿的竞选团队却并没有就此收手。他们给名人大把大把塞钱，买通他们出面支持希拉里，以此攫取千禧一代的票源。甚至许多youtube博主也被收买，相关(证据)的视频流传出来，早已不再是秘密。

They made it seem like all the “cool kids” were supporting Hillary, and against the evil that was Trump. How does a Trump supporter argue against a pop culture icon telling everyone they are evil? Should probably stay silent instead.
他们玩弄这种伎俩，搞得似乎所有的“酷小孩”都在支持希拉里，都在挺身反对“恶魔”特朗普。 流行文化的标签人物纷纷给大众灌输一个概念: “特朗普就是恶魔的化身”。特朗普的支持者，如何还能与之相抗，自我分辨? 他们只能保持沉默。

With the mainstream media calling out Trump supporters as evil, celebrities saying the same, and even many universities deeming pro-Trump comments as “hate speech”, it’s not hard to see why the silent majority formed and became as potent as it was.
主流媒体将特朗普支持者抹黑成“恶魔”，社会名流则充当他们的传声筒，甚至许多大学也将亲特朗普的言论称之为“仇恨言论”。不难看出，沉默的大多数为什么会沉默，但爆发出的潜力又是如此惊人!

The Democrats tried to show that passing judgment on groups of people as a whole was bigoted. And yet that’s exactly what they did by lumping all Trump supporters into a “basket of deplorables”.
民主党人试图传递这种理念: 将一个群体打上一个整体标签的行为，是一种偏执的成见。可是对待特朗普支持者，他们却把这些人全部丢入“basket of deplorables”(可鄙者联盟?)的范畴里，这难道不是在挖坑把自己埋了吗?

That irony was not lost on the silent majority.
“沉默的多数”身上，一再地被上演这种十足反讽的行径。

**The DNC collusion against Bernie Sanders created “Bernie bros”
沆瀣一气的民主党人，为反对伯尼·桑德斯，创造出“伯尼兄弟会”这样的词汇。
**
It’s well known now that the Democratic primary was not fairly fought. Bernie Sanders was backstabbed by the very party he was representing, due to its higher financial and political interest in a Clinton presidency. Yet Bernie’s message touched the hearts of many who sought to overthrow the establishment and the system that Clinton represented. When he was betrayed by the DNC, many of his supporters refused to back Clinton, the one who unfairly robbed the man they put their faith in of a fair fight.They saw in Bernie an outsider who would bring change to the system, and who else was a populist icon who also wanted to bring down the establishment?
民主党初选中的种种不公，现在已不是什么秘密。民主党的政治利益和经济利益被捆绑在希拉里·克林顿总统选举的战车上，结果伯尼·桑德斯被自己的政党在背后捅了刀子。伯尼在大选中的政治主张，打动了很多人，尤其那些希望推翻建制派统治的人。 当桑德斯遭受民主党背叛时，许多信仰桑德斯政治主张的支持者，亲眼见证了他被剥夺公平竞争的机会，自然不会再去支持希拉里·克林顿。桑德斯这样的局外人，曾被视作改变体制的希望。联想一下是不是有另一个谁，也被大众视作扳倒建制派的标志性人物?

You guessed it.
猜到了吧?

Well… you can’t really announce out loud that you were for Bernie and now for Trump. See the point above.
当然……你不可能当众宣布，称自己从前支持桑德斯，现在转投特朗普。读读上文就明白为什么。

The silent majority grew even more.
结果，沉默的人数又增多了。

Legitimate issues went unaddressed by Clinton
大众如此合理的诉求，克林顿却一直****漠视

Trump wanted to “Make America Great Again”. How was he going to do this? We still don’t know, but it does involve a lot of winning apparently.
特朗普希望“美国伟大复兴”。怎么做? 谁心里都没谱。但是很明显，这句口号给他赢得很多支持。

But note the starting point. “Making it great again” recognizes that it currently is not. His platform was based around acknowledging that America had problems while under eight years of Democrat rule.
记得文章开头吗? “美国的伟大复兴”这句口号，其实暗中包含着”美国当下现状令人相当不满意”的含义。他的种种政治主张，都有一个前提，即美国这八年，在民主党的治理下，各种问题是层出不穷。

America is suffering. Unemployment is high, and worse, the government is trying to distort statistics to show otherwise, in the hopes of winning another election cycle. Trump identified areas where it was affecting the core bulk of Americans, such as job outsourcing. Did it even matter if he didn’t have a concrete plan? Just saying the problem exists alone let those infuriated by the current system feel that their voices were being heard. “Make America Great Again”, while vague in its means, was nevertheless inspirational in its promised end.
What did the Democrats do to counter this? Remember this attempt?

美国国内形势每况愈下。失业率高企不下，且有愈演愈恶化的趋势。本届政府却扭曲数据,试图用这些伎俩掩盖现状，赢得本轮选举。但本届大选中，特朗普成功锁定了包括了工作外包在内的多项议题，这些议题涉及面之广，直接到影响到美国人中的核心主体。就算特朗普提不出一个具体的方案去解决问题，那又有什么关系？他只需戳破真相，将问题原原本本地摊出来，对制度体系早就愤懑不满的群众们，当然就觉得特朗普说到了他们的心坎里，把他们的心声给讲了出来。“美国的伟大复兴”，也许没有什么具体含义，却至少可以鼓舞人心！

What did the Democrats do to counter this? Remember this attempt?

在这滔滔民意面前，民主党人却硬要去触逆鳞。 记得下面这玩意嘛？

(图片) 标语：“美国已经很棒哒”

“MAGA” was reaching out to those who felt their concerns were being ignored by the party that had ruled for the past two terms. It showed that their problems were being acknowledged, at the very least. And what voters saw in this attempted rebuttal, was the Democratic party once again sweeping their concerns under the rug, telling disillusioned members who had voted for them before that the country was already great and that no change was necessary.

民主党已经执政两届。民众的一些诉求却一直被忽视， 而这时，“MAGA”运动（译者注：Make America Great Again “美国的伟大复兴” 特朗普的竞选口号）却给他们救场来了。在特朗普的竞选运动中，这些人的诉求至少得到了正面承认与回应。相比之下， 民主党却一直在掩耳盗铃，给选民灌输“美国已经足够优秀，变革没有必要”。结果，曾给民主党投过票的选民，对他们也不敢再抱有任何幻想。

“Make America Great Again” resonated with those who wanted solutions.

对那些迫切希望解决问题的人，“美国伟大复兴”的口号切实地契合了他们的诉求

Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign struggled for a while to come up with a good slogan. At first, they resorted to simple statements on her website, such as

“We cannot afford a Donald Trump presidency.”

于此同时，希拉里·克林顿的竞选团队也在构思自己的竞选口号，憋了好半天，才在她的网站上放出一个大招：

“特朗普当总统？咱玩不起！”

Not too inspirational. Who’s the one running the fear campaign now?

励志吗？ 呵呵。要真说谁在煽动恐惧的话，希拉里：

“我不是针对谁，我是说在座的各位，都是垃圾”

Then they shopped around some more, and ultimately settled on “I’m With Her”. This was used all the way through Election Day.

然后他们又兜兜兜转半天，终于把标语定了下来：

“我与‘她’同在.”

这条标语一直用到了最后。

Not only did their indecisiveness on a catchy slogan hurt their marketplace exposure time (and people who work in branding will know this all too well) but the slogan itself was hardly inspirational to those with legitimate concerns. It simply oozed selfishness.

挑个朗朗上口的宣传标语，他们也迟疑不决，这使得公关时间和媒体曝光度不足，推广效果便大打折扣（品牌行业工作的人对此应该熟之甚稔)。对那些需要渠道发出合理诉求的选民来说，这样的标语有啥子积极意义可言? 它流露的，只有“人人为我”的自私观念。

Voters saw Trump as: “MAGA, we have problems but I will fix them for you”

在选民眼里，特朗普的形象：

“美国伟大复兴：为了美国人民，虽然困难重重，也要一往无前”

While they saw Hillary as: “Be with me and help me become president. At least I’m not Trump. He’s racist. Me me me, it’s my turn.”

而希拉里的形象：

“投票给我撒，让我当总统呀！至少我没特朗普那么锉，他就是个种族主义者。投给我投给我投给我，（总统轮流做），今年轮到我”

[插一句：特朗普的群众集会上，喊得最多的是“U.S.A”(也有Lock Her Up; Trump the Bitch)；

希拉里的群众集会上，喊得最多的，是“Hillary”]

One slogan was a rallying cry for all of America.

The other slogan was all about Hillary Clinton.

特朗普的口号，是美国公民的呼声；

克林顿的口号，是在为自己的加冕之路鼓劲。

(高下立判)

And then we go to the debates.

下一个，到了辩论阶段。

What did Trump keep on doing in the debates? He kept on highlighting the struggles of the blue-collar workers, even in blue states. Even during questions that had nothing to do with them, he kept on bringing the topic back to why jobs were becoming scarce, and what he would do (albeit vaguely) to fix it. Clinton’s platform was largely focused on still attacking his flaws and defending herself against her own baggage rather than acknowledging the suffering voters in the blue states that she thought were hers from the start.

三场辩论期间，特朗普在干什么？他一再地指出美国蓝领工人此刻的挣扎困境，即使身处蓝州（民主党州）时，他也不停地在强调这一点。正式辩论中，即使是在不相干的议题下，特朗普也屡屡向主持人和观众提起，为什么工作岗位在流失，如何（虽然阐述得语焉不详）将这些工作岗位带回来。克林顿呢？她卯足了劲，一边人身攻击特朗普的个人缺点，一边为自己的历史污点洗地。许多选民，甚至是蓝州的选民，他们正苦苦挣扎的事实，希拉里压根没打算去回应。

The silent majority of those states had other plans.

“沉默的多数”，他们心里，自然另有想法。

The Emails + Wikileaks邮件+维基解密

I really wonder how Hillary will feel from now every time she opens an email browser and realize what her past actions cost her. The email scandal could have gone away had she told the truth about what it was that she deleted. But she didn’t.

我很好奇，现在希拉里每次打开邮件浏览器时是啥表情？她有没有意识到，因为这个错误的决定【国务卿任上，私设邮件服务器处理国务院事务（美国国务卿相当于中国外交部长）】，自己付出了多大代价？如果她当初就讲出实情，将被删除邮件的内容告知（国会与公众），这件丑闻很快就会被人遗忘，但她却没有，她选择了隐瞒和撒谎。

Supporters tried to say that they were insignificant. But if the contents were insignificant, why was she trying so desperately to hide them?

他的支持者试图狡辩，称这些都是小事，无足轻重。可要是真的无足轻重，她为什么又要拼了老命掩藏呢？

（译者注：

希拉里删除了39000件邮件，其中包括涉密邮件。在收到国会传票后，她指示手下，以暴力方式，物理粉碎自己的私人通讯设备。

她的国会证词，已被FBI局长证实，其中有伪证成分。

在美国，在法庭或国会里，宣誓后作伪证是重罪。

当年时任总统比尔·克林顿在法庭上宣誓后，却称自己跟莱温斯基没有发生性关系。后来丑闻捅出时，因为做伪证(不是因为通奸)差点被国会弹劾）

And then there were the Wikileaks, every day pumping out more and more evidence about Clinton’s media collusion, her receiving debate questions ahead of time, proof of the DNC sabotaging Bernie, the questionable use of charity money, and basically verifying that accusations dismissed by the Clinton campaign as conspiracies were indeed true.

接下来，又来了维基泄密登场。维基泄密组织，每天都在网络上发布海量信息和证据：克林顿跟媒体窜通、在辩论前私相授受辩论议题搞作弊、DNC暗中给桑德斯下绊子、(克林顿)慈善基金账款的不当使用，以及克林顿拼命想撇清最终却坐实的各种阴谋论。

While the mainstream media outlets refused to cover this, the silent majority were already committed to learning what they needed to further their conviction.

主流媒体虽然不肯报道这些消息，但“沉默的多数”却决心挖出这些黑材料，这下，更证实了他们先前的推断。

Liberals who were still with her tried to blow off the whole thing; there was no reason to think that she had committed anything sketchy.

自由派依旧想把这件事大事化小、小事化了，希望将这些丑闻轻描淡写地处理掉；没有理由相信她干了什么见不得光的事，他们如是说

The silent majority had all the reasons they needed.

但“沉默的大多数”，却已有了充足的理由做出自己的决定。

Vote Wars: Episode III

Revenge of the Si - lent Majority

沉默选民的复仇

And then they struck. On Election Day, the silent majority flipped the predictions (by five thirty eight, the supposed gold standard) by turning crucial historically blue states red, and then continuing the rampage. As the map started bleeding red in parts it shouldn’t have, the media outlets panicked. It was easy enough before the election to claim that there was no way for Trump to win, in hopes of discouraging voters. But they were powerless when the actual election was underway.

沉默的选民开始反击了。选举当天，这些原本不出声的选民，纷纷出来投票，彻底逆转了民意调查的预测结果。关键蓝州，历史性地被逆转成红州，颜色还越来越深。选举局势分布图上，随着红色在不该出现的地方出现地越来越多，媒体开始慌神了。选举前，他们可以趾高气昂地宣布特朗普没有一丁点可能获胜，借此打击亲特朗普选民们的士气。但是等选举正式拉开帷幕后，他们再也无能为力了。

The above graphic shows how every mainstream media prediction was wildly inaccurate. Many who gambled on the election and lost money can thank the mainstream media for influencing them.

上面的图线显示出，所有媒体的预测，都错得离谱。按照媒体预测去下注赌钱，输得底裤都当掉的人，这下可以找媒体讨个说法了。

This is a historic election that will go down in the books. Trump fought against a ridiculously large gauntlet of contenders in the primaries, and won. He fought against his own party refusing to back him. He recovered from his own party betraying him after his leaked comments about grabbing women. He fought against every underhanded tactic the DNC threw at him, media collusion, every mainstream media outlet being against him, his supporters being silenced, and won.

这是一场历史性选举，注定将载入史册。在初选中，特朗普遭到党内一众对手令人窒息的围攻，最终却艰难取胜，收获提名；之后，他的政党不愿意为他背书，在性骚扰言论泄露出来后，本党同僚纷纷跳船，但他又挺住了，慢慢回血，原地复活；DNC（民主党全国委员会）一直用下三滥的阴招招呼他，跟媒体勾结在一块儿抹黑他；主流媒体一次又一次地发声反对他；他的支持者被迫匿声，不敢支持他——可他还是笑到了最后。

Has there ever been another moment in history when a billionaire was the underdog?

历史上何曾有过这么奇葩一幕：一个亿万富翁，落水狗般被人喊打？

Academics, from now and possibly centuries later (if we as a species make it) will study and analyze this election. And I hope that right now, despite almost every liberal crying about how racism and bigotry are what drove these results, that they realize there were many factors at play here.

学术界，接下来几个世纪都有活儿干了，他们得把这场选举里里外外分析研究。虽然学术界现在叫着欢，哭喊着这次的选举结果被种族主义和冥顽不灵的旧思想“操纵”了，我还是希望他们能好好研究，看清楚决定这场选举结果隐藏着的诸多因素。

Racism? This was the same country that elected Obama. Twice. And some states that gave their votes to him now gave them to Trump.

说什么种族主义啊？这个国家当初可是把奥巴马选上了总统，而且是两次！而那些投票给特朗普的州，当初也曾是奥巴马的真爱粉。

Bigotry? The definition of bigotry is the refusal to acknowledge other viewpoints. And by nonstop claiming it was the fault of a racist country, the losing side is fulfilling this requirement.

说啥子冥顽不灵嘞？冥顽不灵的意思，是拒绝承认别人的（不同）观点。不停地叫嚣指责这场选举之所以出现这样的结果，是因为这个国家已经堕落成种族主义国度，这种行径才称得上一句“冥顽不灵”吧！

Rather, this whole mess was the fault of the DNC, who not only screwed themselves over, in which they deserve the loss, but who also unfairly screwed the members of their own party over, who did not deserve this.

不过，现在一团混乱的局面，民主党全国委员会要负很大的责任。他们自己坑了自己，算自作自受；但其他很多人，其实是被这些废材拖累到现在这般田地。

If your side lost in this election, recognize where the blame truly lies. Demonize the other side all you want, but recognize that the very ones who tried to lead you to victory performed selfish actions without your consent, used underhanded tactics, undermined democracy, divided the country by promoting intolerance to different political beliefs, withheld crucial information about your candidate’s shady dealings, and ultimately lost it for you.

在本届大选中，如果你是属于失利的一方，你们就得好好反省，这口大锅到底该谁来背。你们尽可以污蔑对手一方，但最后也必须认识清楚，正是那群打算领导你们走向胜利的人，未经你们的许可，肆意妄为，中饱私囊，谋一己之私；是他们，使用下三滥的手段，践踏民主制度，排斥异己，撕裂国家；是他们，明知克林顿种种幕后交易的内幕，却私自隐瞒了消息。是他们，该负起全部的责任。

You did your part. Your party didn’t.

你尽了自己的一份力量，你的党呢?

译者后记：

关于版权的问题，我已经跟原作者取得联系，获得授权。

知友在评论区指出的技术性问题，已经修改更新过。

关于翻译风格问题，

一来这篇文章太长，文字处理得如果比较呆板，写得很累，读得也很累。翻译时脑洞开一开其实很有意思，像是在自己跟自己玩文字游戏。

二来是我个人的偏向问题，我觉得翻译应该是面对读者的，读者倘有能力，大可以自行阅读原文；如果只读中文，又何必读洋绉绉的古怪文章?

过去老一辈的翻译家比如鲁迅先生，强调“硬译”，要保留原文的行文特点，这是出于学习外国语言的长处，改造旧文学、发展白话文的目的。现在已经没有这个必要，读者已经是以接受信息为主要目的了。

至于政治倾向性、词语选择情绪化的问题，大家尽可以批评，但是我也不会专门去改了，那么做，又得把文章改到伤筋动骨。

其实处理正式公文时，我还是规规矩矩，按照公文风格处理的。参见之前的回答中，我翻译的FBI 局长(重启邮件门调查前)通知国会的信函：

如何看待 FBI 在 2016 年 10 月 29 日重启调查希拉里的「邮件门」？

谢谢各位点赞。

知乎用户 陈健坤 发表于 11/19/2017

我用一本心理学著作解释一下。这本书mistakes were made 是心理学家Carol Tavris 和 Elliot Aronson 写的关于人们的认知盲点，解释了为什么人有很强的倾向不去承认自己的错误。我原本写的是越战这里我删除越战内容只留下用到的psychological blind spot，然后加上一些美国大选的例子

In Mistakes Were Made, psychologists Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson explored the inherent psychological blind spots that block our abilities to consciously recognize and accept our mistakes. By distorting reality, these blind spots keep us from processing all necessary information to assess issues objectively and skew our reasoning processes systematically. These micro-level findings can also be employed to explain group-level decision mistakes that led to spectacular failures in history.

Confirmation bias refers to the mental contortion for individuals to only pay attention to information that is consonant with their beliefs (22).
比如民主党只看支持自己观点的证据。“没文化的白人都支持川普”。但是没文化的黑墨绿支持民主党的比例高于没文化的白人支持川普的比例。民主党只看见川普涉嫌歧视却从来没意识到自己的侮辱性语言更多。彭斯在VP辩论上就直接抨击所谓的“insult driven campaign”，说川普的言语加起来也抵不上希拉里的“一篮子可悲的人”
“共和党反智，川普说全球变暖是中国发明的”
是的，但是NYC法律保护的31种性别可不是红脖子捏造的
“假新闻泛滥”是的，但是fake news outlets 也包括主流媒体

Naïve realism describes the “inescapable conviction that we perceive objects and events clearly”. This phenomenon creates a logic labyrinth leading to the conclusion that people who disagree with us are not seeing things clearly and thus are unreasonably biased (54).
“我是白左所以我说的肯定都是对的。我支持的是进步，自由，平权。反对我的人一定都是保守主义右翼危险分子”
“川普那么智障还有这么多底层白人支持他”

Cognitive dissonance is a state of tension that occurs when an individual holds two cognitions that are psychologically inconsistent. The dissonance creates mental discomfort and the individual will try to reduce the dissonance (16). When an expert made a wrong judgment, the expert usually reduces the dissonance by unconsciously refusing to accept failure. The more self-confident and famous the expert is, the less likely he or she will be to admit mistakes (40).
有从政三十年经验的希拉里被没有从政经验的川普击败了。这有两个解释
1。希拉里太无能，川普虽然没有从政经历但是人很聪明，能吸引disenchanted voters。而且能很好的利用大家对建制派的不满拉选票
2。这说明美国的种族歧视，性别歧视有多么严重。你看，从政三十年的女性都被没有从政的男性击败了。川普这么歧视黑墨绿还赢了说明纳粹要复辟了，白人全是万恶的种族分子，大家Antifa赶紧上街暴乱去

知乎用户 李京楠 发表于 11/11/2016

从这篇回答来看，其实他们反醒的真的很快。至少quora上有反省的文章。

Are people who support Donald Trump racist xenophobes? by Ben Skirvin https://www.quora.com/Are-people-who-support-Donald-Trump-racist-xenophobes/answer/Ben-Skirvin?srid=hhZwV&share=0ba78c79

感谢大家的指正，希望更多人可以看到这篇文章。以下是我修改后的翻译。

Preface, I did not vote for Trump. But, I want to point something out.
写在前面，我没投川普。但是我想说明一些事情。

This photograph was taken by a friend of mine who works as a freelance photographer for a variety of national and international publications including Time Magazine.

It was published under a number of rather alarming headlines, including one fromquantz.com which described it as an “apocalyptic” image of the future if Trump won the election.

这张照片我一个朋友拍的，他是一名自由记者，给很多国际媒体撰稿，比如时代。这张照片被刊登在一系列醒目的头条新闻中，比如一条是来自quantz.com，这篇报道把川普获胜的情形描绘为末日景象（apocalyptic）。

This puzzled me.

这让我感到很困惑。

The photo was taken at a campaign rally in Loveland, CO. It is a city of about 50,000 people. Of those, 92.85 percent are Caucasian. The median per capita income in Loveland, CO is about $21,000 per year.

这张照片拍摄于一次在 Loveland, CO 进行的竞选集会。这是一座有50,000的城市，其中92.85%是高加索人（白人），人均年收入是21,000刀。

Up until 1985, a factory run by the Great Western Sugar Company provided most of the jobs. But, that closed and it’s only partially been replaced by a handful of smaller manufacturing plants.

直到1985年，一家叫做Great Western Sugar Company的公司的工厂提供了这里大部分的工作岗位。但是在它关闭后，仅有数家小型的制造厂提供部分的工作岗位。

That’s all demographics and history, but that’s not what puzzled me.

但这些只是人口统计资料和历史，并不是困惑我的地方。

I grew up in the heart of the Rust Belt. My grandfather ran a small town electrical repair shop. My uncle worked in a munitions plant on a military base outside the microscopic town where he was raised. My cousin worked in a factory producing cabinets until he was laid off a few years ago for the third time in two years. Now he strings together part-time work, a convenience store during the day and bouncer at local bar at night.

我在Rust Belt的中心区长大，我祖父运营了一家小的电器修理铺。我叔叔则在家乡的小镇外的军工厂里工作。我的堂兄弟在一家生产柜子的工厂里工作，但很快，他在2年内第三次失业了。现在他白天在便利店，晚上则在当地的酒吧里当保镖。

When I look at that picture, I don’t see racist. I don’t see bigots. I don’t see hillbillies or rednecks. I don’t see deplorables.

我看着这张照片，我看到的不是种族主义者，也不是顽固派，不是乡巴佬和红脖子，也不是DEPLORABLES(这个词常用来羞辱川普支持者)。

I see a bunch of people pretty similar to my grandfather, uncle and cousin.

At this point in my life, I doubt I have many common opinions with those folks anymore.

But, most of them tried to be the best people they knew how to be.

我看到是一群跟我祖父，叔叔，堂兄弟很像的人。时至今日，我和他们的价值观可能完全不一样了。但是他们中的大部分人其实是在努力让自己活的更好。

The problem was never that they were bad people.

其实他们从来都不是坏蛋。

The problem was that nobody knew how to talk to them in a way that related to their world. It was a failure of imagination. Worse, it was a failure of empathy.

**其实只是没有人知道如何以他们的方式与他们进行交流。**这不仅是想象力（ imagination）的失败，这更是同理心（ empathy）的失败

Think of it this way.

换个思路。

How do you convince a working class conservative guy from rural western Kentucky to support gay marriage?

你应该怎样去说服一个来自western Kentucky农村的保守的工人去支持同性婚姻呢？

Well, first you imagine the world as he sees it. It’s marketing 101. Know your audience.

首先你得以他的视角来看世界。要从市场营销入门这门课中的，了解你的听众这一节课开始。

This guy doesn’t have much in common with a college educated, middle class, social media marketing director from midtown Manhattan. That’s not a world that he lives in.

他和来自自曼哈顿的，上过大学的，中产阶层的，在社会媒体行业的市场总监完全不是一路人。他根本就生活在不同的世界。

He doesn’t have much in common with a Gender Studies professor from Harvard.

他和哈佛的性别研究教授也不是一路人。

So, maybe those are not your best spokespeople.

所以这些人可能不具代表性。

Surely, there is one gay man somewhere in the South or Midwest working in manual labor. Ideally, he’s a former marine who grew up poor in a trailer park or on a farm. But, he worked hard, joined the military, fought for his country, came home and started a contracting business.

那就这样，在南方或中西部的蓝领里肯定会有一位同性恋。理想条件下，他还是个在拖车停车场或者农场里长大的退役海军。他努力工作，然后参军，为国而战，返乡后开始做生意。

It started out small, but now he’s proud to employ 5 hardworking Americans.

开始只是小买卖，现在他很自豪他顾了5个勤劳的美国人。

And why does this hardworking American want to talk to you about gay marriage?

那么这个勤奋的美国人为啥要跟你讨论同性婚姻吗？

Because he loves his husband?

因为他爱他丈夫吗？

Because he wants to plead for fair treatment?

因为他想得到公正的对待吗？

Because of equality, peace and understanding?

因为平等，和平，理解吗？

Hell no.

扯淡。

He wants to talk to you about gay marriage because these asshole bureaucrats in Lexington are fucking with his tax bill and the lawyer fees on all this fucking government paper work is bleeding him dry. He wants to file a joint tax return on his business as a married man and these bastard politicians won’t let him, because they’re greedy sons of bitches.

他想谈同性婚姻是因为莱克星顿的傻*官员在乱收税，是因为政府文件的律师费在吸他的血。他想以已婚身份的人来开联合税务申报但那些混蛋官员不让，因为这些官都是贪婪的**。

And this is the most important part.

这才是重点。

If they’re willing to cheat a hardworking veteran like that, what’s stopping these leeches from coming after you?

如果连勤奋的老兵他们都这样欺负，这些吸血的水蛭迟早会找上你自己。

Wait.

省省吧。

You thought this was about equal rights?

你以为这是平权？

You thought this was about properly categorizing various gender identities into their neat little containers?

你以为这是让各种的性别认知障碍的人用自己已有的身躯过上的体面的生活？

You thought this was about love and hate and big bearded man in the sky hating gay people?

It never occurred to you that it’s really a tax and regulatory overreach issue.

你以为这是这是因为爱与恨，大胡子的中年男子歧视同性恋吗？你从来没想过这其实是税收和管理过度的问题。

Some guy working two jobs making $10.50 an hour doesn’t have much time to think about the difference between gender queer and two souls. Nor does he have much interest in learning.

那些打着两份工，每小时赚10.50刀的人才没有时间去考虑性别酷儿(既非男也非女的性别认知)和双魂人（two souls,LGBT的另一种称呼，目前不太明白该怎么翻译）又什么区别，他也没兴趣去了解。

But, by god, he’s right there with you when it comes to lawyers and bureaucrats being assholes and taxes being too damned high. He understands that.

但是，在面对**的律师和官僚，在面对奇高的收税时，他和你是一样的，这方面他绝对是明白人。

And what about that working class guy?

这些工人怎么了？

Where’d you lose him?

为什么会这样？

Go watch Harlan County, USA and ask yourself if all those union coal miners are dyed in the wool Republicans. That movie is set in 1976 and every last one of those hard-bitten bastards went to the polling booth and proudly voted union blue Democrat.

去看看《Harlan County, USA 》（一部挺老的纪录片，得过奥斯卡，主要讲述煤矿工人发起罢工），问问你自己那些煤矿工人到底是不是彻头彻尾的共和党。在这部1976年的电影这些硬气的老骨头就把票全都投给了蓝党。

Jimmy Carter won Kentucky that year by 7 percentage points.

Jimmy Carter以7个点的优势赢了肯塔基。

Bernie Sanders understood that.

Bernie Sanders再清楚不过了。

He came to deepest red Indiana and he pummeled Clinton in a humiliating defeat. He also won Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

他跑到深红的印第安纳让送给了克林顿一个大写的胜利。他同时还赢了密西根，维斯肯斯和明尼苏达。

His strategy in those states was simple and pure.

他在这些州的战术简单明了。

Find the nearest group of laid-off factory workers and promise to punish the bastards who closed their factory.

找到附近被下岗的工人让后承诺他会惩罚那些关闭工厂的混蛋。

Because that’s what Democrats are suppose to do.

因为这才是民主党该做的事。

In his heart of hearts, that high school educated factory worker knows with absolute certainty that management is a bunch of greedy bastards who’d lay off good people to save $.02 on the bottom line.

他深深地明白，即使有仅有高中学历的工人，对那些为了0.02刀的利润就能解雇工人的贪婪管理层的嘴脸，也是看的清清楚楚的。

Tap into that rage and turn it into something better.

理解这些愤怒，使之转化为力量吧。

——————————————————————————————

或许正如知乎的分析，这次意外的大选结果的直接原因正是美国国内意识形态的撕裂。这道挡在美国民众中间的鸿沟的一端是白左，另一端则是“默多”。一端营造着政治正确的白色恐怖，一端只得酝酿着自己的愤怒。

而根本原因，则应该是美国的经济政策使得贫富差距被无限的放大。幸运的是，即使美国的经济政策已经将美国的民众一分为二，灯塔国的根基却依然履行着自己的使命，使得唐纳德川普当上了总统。

这不是川普的胜利，这是“默多”的胜利。

知乎用户 MaLong码龙 发表于 8/21/2017

几个月了，看了些新闻，一些大体的观感，回答一发：

基层民主党和部分州的民主党是有反思的，比如西佛吉尼亚州的民主党参议员和民主党州长（不过人家直接投诚了），密苏里州州议会民主党参议员也在本州参议员叫嚣暗杀川普之后立即表示划清界限和反对。如果一点反思也没有的话，这些民主党员还是做不出来这样的事情的。

中央的嘛。举两个例子，夏村事件后川普乱说话坑人了，Dem 瞬间高潮，但是看看这两份数据：

Survery monkey 民调：46%的人认为夏村事件极右负全责，40%的人认为双方都有责任，9%的人认为左派负全责。

ABC 民调： 62%的人反对拆邦联雕像(27%支持)，包括 44%黑人（40%支持），和41%的民主党员。

然后兰西大妈继续号召拆邦联雕像，还在国会动议。

继续high, 同志们。

知乎用户 知乎用户 发表于 11/10/2016

西方白左不是真的左派，真的左派是马列老毛这种斗争到底，强硬而倔强的战士！
所谓白左，只是一群小资产阶级分子，分外有软弱性。离他们慷慨壮烈的先辈，巴黎公社、国际纵队真是不知道差到哪里去了。
西方白左彻底放弃了无产阶级，远离人民群众。自己躲在书斋里，编出一套不食肉糜的爱与包容的指导思想。并且自诩为先进思想的卫道者，自己觉得道德上高高在上。如此傲慢，怎么会反思呢？
总之一句话，左派放弃了阶级斗争就软软绵绵一事无成。

知乎用户 杨微粒 发表于 11/12/2016

没有一个政党像民主党这样夸大自己的力量，也没有一个政党像民主党这样轻率地错误估计局势。
民主党人认为，和他们对立的是一个特权阶级，但他们和全国所有其他阶层一起构成了人民。他们所维护的都是人民的权利；他们所关心的都是人民的利益。因此，他们没有必要在临近斗争时考察各个不同阶级的利益和状况。他们不必过分仔细地估量他们自己的力量。他们只要发出一个信号，人民就会用它的无穷无尽的力量冲向压迫者。
不管怎样，民主党人逃出最可耻的失败时总是洁白无瑕，正像他进入这种失败时是纯洁无辜一样；他摆脱失败时信心更加坚定了，他以为他一定会胜利，以为不是他自己和他的党应该放弃旧的观点，相反地，是情势应该来适应他。
第三章 路易・波拿巴的崛起

之前知乎已经有人引用了。我自己也做个记号。卡尔马克思喷了100多年前的白左（？）……

知乎用户 Louis Capet 发表于 11/11/2016

一旦精神进步主义的人陷入反思，就不得不承认保守主义才是诚实而谦卑的药物，医治人性的傲慢，也医治社会的狂热。

人或因教育或因立场，一般总会把自己划到或左或右的阵营里。通常来说，当意见发生分歧时，人们会称因教育产生的偏差价值为“蠢”，因立场产生的偏差是“坏”。如今发生在全球化利益集团和本国平民中产之间的矛盾，就是一方勉力通过手中的资本和话语权污名化另一个群体缺少教育，不会思考，且价值丑陋；今年的这些黑天鹅事件，何不是精英们自己闭门造出来的呢？皇帝的新衣不仅来自于这种自愿的闭目塞听，更来自于这种对于民众意见和生存诉求的傲慢。他们缺乏公正太久了，他们喜欢拿着免费面包的人一生拿着免费面包并赞颂他们的仁慈，却对想吃火鸡的人表示轻蔑，并给每个人都塞上一罐味道奇怪的昂贵鱼子酱。面临割裂的时候，元老院和贵族为了自己的土地和财富，刺杀了两个想为平民争取土地而游说的格拉古，他们放出谣言说：格拉古想成为僭主，要当国王，要毁坏共和！（多么熟悉！如今又有多少喉舌，要把一个变革者急急地描述成疯子、希特勒，忙忙地把那些值得讨论的政策和诉求强行变成唯一值得嘲笑的疯话呢？）格拉古死了，于是他迎来了裹挟民意的僭主凯撒，凯撒与他们分享权力，他们又刺杀了凯撒。最后他们迎来了屋大维这个真实的元首，失去了荣耀。杀掉信使，并不会使坏消息永不到来。
我从很早就一直想弄清楚我自己的立场，但一旦安上个左派右派的名头，又总觉得老是被那些名头绑架了。在不同的语境里，我的立场是完全摇摆的。我不能不说我对社会达尔文主义是厌恶的，我对世界公民的理想是憧憬的，我对国家主义和民族主义是不屑一顾的，我对对科学的态度比对宗教正面得多，我对平权和性别模糊化是赞赏的，我对多元社会是保有希望的，甚至我还更激进些，认为连婚姻和家庭都要解构的；然而，就算这些进步主义的议题，我在精神世界里完完全全地站到了他们的那一边，却不得不头脑清醒地回到现实，把眼光放回那些关于面包，关于安全，关于主流，以及关于自由的范畴里。人类经常会为自己的创举和新思潮感动，这之后就是过于激进地尝试，这是我们傲慢的本性所决定的。但很多程度上，即便是我们认定的真理和接受的价值，那些进步的，看上去美好的理想，却不一定是好的，更不一定是对的，至少此时此刻。

进步思潮往往是理性和学识的后果，却往往不能立即引向妥善和温和。人对理性和学识是期待过高而顾忌太少，我必须承认，很多时候我认为我的价值所蕴含的逻辑性要远高于我的父辈，我会不由自主地认为我更正义，也更有智慧。然而我不能忘记也不能否认的是，我们不是解决问题的人，我们五谷不分，四体不勤，从未面临过真正的生存困境，我们的方案空洞而脱离焦点，我们不是普适的。进步绝不是社会存续的唯一价值。就像工业、经济、科技都不是一样。进步只是一群人的一个诉求而已。

不得不说，由于这种悲观情绪，对自己和人类的怀疑，让我的进步主义思想不堪一击，而对另一种美德心存感激。我想当进步主义们使用民主、自由、工人、社会的名义大行其道时，另一群谦卑又诚实的人，宁愿用“保守”这种略显负面的词汇标榜自己，提示这个世界缓下脚步，进行弥合和重新思考，暂缓作出新的选择，主动削减自己的权威，让一切回归讨论，回归自由。自由。

这就是当我发现，一个人如果认同进步主义，就常常不由自主地认同一个强大的权力去插手人们的所谓“落后”认知，而且这种认同由于根深蒂固的文明世界教给他的文化相对主义，往往伴随着不可救药的双重标准。当他们反思性别问题时，却往往对另外的宗教另外的民族百倍于他的底线的恶劣习俗无限度地豁免，而对与他有相似成长经历和接近的价值观念的人因为微小的分歧大加挞伐。就由于他们认同的多元化与他们同时认同的平等主义相互矛盾时，他们无法更深刻地思考，也无法公正地作出判断和选择。

文明是有高低之分的，是有美丑之辨的。一个罗马的覆灭可以让西欧的文明水平陷入了整整数个世纪的黑暗之中，如果今天的西方文明再经受一次这样的分崩呢？当人群和别的族群再也跟不上那些美好的价值的时候，强行推广的善意只会被卑鄙地利用，最后反而被唾弃和泯灭。我正是希望老欧洲能以圆滑和谨慎的态度，暂时收起自己太高阶段的人道精神，度过现实的危机而保留文明的火种，只有那样，才不会最终使那些善意的价值和包容的精神反倒受到嘲笑，难以被人相信和憧憬。

保守主义不仅是拯救文明的妥协手段，也是保障自由的道德基础。我相信者很多坚持自由意志的人有天然的反思情绪，知道理性的不可靠和人的缺陷，而风险往往就在被收缩的权威里消弭。所有人都必须明白，在相同的文明认知下，别人跟我的选择都一样厚重和值得关照，精英们必须有这样的谦逊和悲悯，才能当的起带领大众的责任。并且无论是什么前提，都不能贸然质疑法律和秩序的规范和愈合能力。

但愿保守主义或许能挽回这些文明之光自我毁灭的奔袭，种下新的制衡的种子，让年轻人在疯狂的梦境中照到、瞥见残酷的现实和艰难的前路。

知乎用户 叛逆者​ 发表于 11/14/2016

今天刚遇到的事。

一个左派，在选举前听到Trump说“要把非法移民都遣返”，就在那边大骂，说不人道云云。今天听到Trump说“先把有犯罪记录的非法移民遣返，有的非法移民也是有贡献的，应该看看再说”，就在那边大骂，说当初你怎么讲的云云。

反思？什么反思？光说不做的人有什么好反思的。

知乎用户 黄续新 发表于 11/11/2016

他们的确反思了，也认识到了人民的力量。这次是因为民智未开。他们立下决心，做好牧羊人和精英，在接下来的日子里好好教育愚昧的大众。

以下回答在另两个问题下都被建议修改了。

我人不在美帝，但11日下午刚刚看到《选美》刚推送的这篇文章。如鲠在喉，不吐不快。

既然你为了自己个人的“美国梦”，离开了自己的祖国，义无反顾的为自己心中的人类自由灯塔添砖加瓦；可以，没有任何人有权力在道德法律上谴责你，您可以感慨理想破灭群众愚昧，那是您的自由。

但请您千万！千万！千万别把自己比作那些青年！！也许他们思想幼稚不成熟，容易被煽动。但是迄今为止，无论墙外，没有人会否认他们爱国的赤子之心！！

你也配？？
你个还在大学里为了疲于应付考试却心系世界大同，只能在网络和口号上指点江山的“精英”也配？？
真正的精英，我个人以为太祖为代表，永远是身先士卒，听取人民大众的心声。
你个在象牙塔里拯救世界的人也配叫“精英”？
你也配！！

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